NIE: The Bottom Line (so far)
Think what you will about the revelations in the partially declassified April 2006 NIE, but I maintain that the central premise remains: That "the situation in Iraq has worsened the U.S. position (in the global counterterrorism struggle)" as a result of the invasion. It is clear that U.S. objectives have been compromised:
Furthermore, the four reasons cited in the administration's NIE for the spread of this jihadist movement clearly point to the same conclusion:
Reasons #1, #2 and #4 are directly worsened by the invasion of Iraq. No way around it. (Reason#3, incidentally, while largely due to homegrown corruption by exploitative ideologues, certainly has not been helped by Western trade practices and many countries' Middle East policies.)
The NIE itself concludes this central point, albeit buried somewhat on page 2:
...And George W Bush would have us believe we are naïve and mistaken? Based on this document, which was intended to "end speculation"? Sounds more like wishful thinking -- unless there are further details awaiting declassification that contradict these findings...but somehow I doubt it.
Regardless, at the end of the day we're still in Iraq due to this Administration's disastrous Grand Experiment, so what do we do?
Must I repeat myself?
- As stated in the NIE, and well covered today by the media and blogosphere: "The Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement."
- Our moral leadership in the world is lost, making it much harder to win the Battle of Ideas -- which many experts agree is the central battlefront in reducing the terror threat
- Afghanistan is witnessing the rebirth of the Taliban. Our chances of having permanently eliminated the Taliban and its al Qaeda sympathizers were much greater when our attention and resources were focused in Afghanistan.
Furthermore, the four reasons cited in the administration's NIE for the spread of this jihadist movement clearly point to the same conclusion:
- Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness
- the Iraq "jihad"
- the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations
- pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims
Reasons #1, #2 and #4 are directly worsened by the invasion of Iraq. No way around it. (Reason#3, incidentally, while largely due to homegrown corruption by exploitative ideologues, certainly has not been helped by Western trade practices and many countries' Middle East policies.)
The NIE itself concludes this central point, albeit buried somewhat on page 2:
"We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate."
...And George W Bush would have us believe we are naïve and mistaken? Based on this document, which was intended to "end speculation"? Sounds more like wishful thinking -- unless there are further details awaiting declassification that contradict these findings...but somehow I doubt it.
Regardless, at the end of the day we're still in Iraq due to this Administration's disastrous Grand Experiment, so what do we do?
Must I repeat myself?
posted by non_seq at 9:29 AM
1 Comments:
It's totally crazy how the Bush Administration believes that declassifying some of this document would make rational, thoughtful people less scared!
I am seriously going to lose my shit if Republicans do well this year. I mean come on... from this morass all the way to the race in Virginia.
For a lighter (but still thought-provoking) take on all this, check out the Show with Ze Frank. I find it kind of comforting... for two minutes a day!
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